The Russian drive in Asia

Title

Creator

Wickremasinghe, Sivapali

Language

English

Source

Panorama Volume XX (No. 10) October 1968

Year

1968

Rights

In Copyright - Educational Use Permitted

Fulltext

THE RUSSIAN DRIVE IN ASIA The Soviet Union is gra dually stepping up attempts to increase its influence on Southeast Asia, taking advan tage of the announced Bri tish decision to withdraw from East of Suez by 1971 and scheming to exploit the expected contradicting of American power in the Indo chinese peninsula when the war in Vietnam ends. The British decision to withdraw will, it is believed in Japan, have far-reaching effects on Southeast Asia and the Far East in general. Three points stand out: The presence of the British troops in Singapore has been an important factor for the United States — as a symbol of the unity of Anglo-Ameri can policy rather than for the combat value — valuable though the British contribu tion was when Malaysia was confronted by Indonesia. The departure of these troops will mean, it is said, a departure from joint policy. Secondly, removal of Bri tish troops from' Southeast Asia, except for Hong Hong, is expected to relegate the United Kingdom from the position of a world power to that of a European power, both in name and reality. After the British withdrawal, Japan will be the only Asian nation that can offer security to Southeast Asian countries, either independently or with the assistance of the United States. Thirdly, it is considered im perative in Japan to a way of neutralizing the entire region of Southeast Asia to avoid a conflict between world po wers. It is pointed out that at present it would be diffi cult to neutralize the area because of feuds among the nations of the region. There fore, the immediate concern should be to set up a security alliance among the countries ot the region, centering on Japan. October 1968 31 Thailand is the most voci ferous against withdrawal of western military power from Southeast Asia. Bangkok has even hinted that it might have second thoughts about its anti-Communist stand if the United States negotiates its way out of Southeast Asia. Thailand’s Foreign Minister, Thanat Khoman, has express ed fears that “Vietnam will be forsaken” by Washington “in the same way as Laos.” The South Koreans, on the other hand, would like the Pentagon to pull out of South east Asia and pull in — in cluding military personnel and facilities at present in Japan — to Seoul. Singapore’s Prime Minister, Lee Kuan Yew, whose coun try was most affected by the British decision to withdraw, hinted in London early this year that he would not even mind a Japanese military pre sence in Singapore. Although Lee’s statement stirred government officials in Japan, the official reaction by Japanese Foreign Ministry officials was a cautious one. They are not unaware of the still dormant anti-J apanese atmosphere in Singapore. At the same time, Philip pine President Ferdinand E. Marcos also renewed his Aug ust 1967 suggestion for an all-Asian military arrange ment for the area. FUTURE MILITARY ALLIANCE While no concrete steps have been agreed upon by any two of the nations of the region, it is certain that Japan does not want to be left out of any regional military alliance. Japan is against a military alliance only if it is explicitly directed against Communist China because it would jeopardize Japanese moves to improve relations with Peking to increase trade. Nevertheless, the fact that the United States — anxious not to stayjn Southeast Asia longer than necessary — is urging Japan to build up its military power is regarded in Japan as an indication that Washington wants a future regional military alliance to center on Tokyo. The American interest in an all-Asian military arrange ment is whetted, by Japanese observers, by the impotence of SEATO (Southeast Asia Treaty Organization). SEAPanorama TO was meant to defend the Southeast Asian countries from Chinese “aggression.” SEATO is partially paralyzed, however, by the lack of co operation from Paris and Ra walpindi. But with specific reference to Japan, this question is be ing asked: If Japan does not want to antagonize Peking, then against whom and for what purpose would the mili tary alliance be directed? According to reports in Tokyo and in the view of some of ficials, if it comes about it will be aimed at the Soviet Union. It is believed in Japan that Russia can hope to gain from the staleihate in Vietnam. Well-informed Japanese ar gue that if America pulls out of continental Southeast Asia, the Soviet Union may step into the vacuum. Anv such move would upset Japan’s plan to cultivate the South east Asian markets for its products, and even more alarmingly, endanger Japan’s political stability. In the light of this, Japan is carefully watching Russia. Moscow has been active in Southeast Asia in the last few months. The Kremlin made a first move in the region by signing a commercial agree ment with Malaysia. This was quickly followed by opening diplomatic relations between Kuala Lumpur and Moscow. PHILIPPINES AND PAKISTAN Also the Soviet Union is working its way into the of ficially anti-Communist Phil ippines. A trade agreement, as a first step, is expected between Manila and Moscow. Russia also maintains cordial relations with Indonesia. Besides, it is held here, So viet Premier Alexei Kosygin’s visit to Rawalpindi is another Kremlin step to get closer to Asians. This trip resulted in Russia’s agreeing to sell arms to Pakistan and the Pakistan government told the US that it does not want to renew the agreement to lease to the US the Peshawar military base, which was due to expire in 1969. Some Japanese observers think that these advances are far more significant than they appear on the surface. Of particular significance, they point out, is the simultaneous increase in Russian military activities in Southeast Asia. October 1968 33 As an example of Russia’s new drive to gain influence in Asia, it is pointed out that the Soviet Government offi cial publication Izvestia has criticized Communist China’s Afro-Asian policy, alleging that Peking is a “dangerous instigator.” Another noteworthy fact is that maneuvers of the Soviet navy have increased in South east Asia waters in recent months. The number of sub marines, belonging to the USSR, sighted in the Pacific waters has increased, accord ing to an American military official in Tokyo4 A Soviet naval commander boasted in Pravda that “im perialist nations of the West no longer can boast of their absolute command of the seas. Today the flags of the Soviet navy are floating in every corner of the world.” Japan feels uneasy over these developments because it sees them as a sign that Moscow is tending to exert its military influence in an area which Japan hopes to control through economic means, thus bringing Japan ese and Russian interest into conflict. The conclusion drawn in Japan is that the best defense against Russia is to form an alliance with Southeast Asian countries so that it would be difficult for the Soviet Union to woo them into the Krem lin orbit separately. — By Sivapali Wickremasinghe in the Manila Chronicle, Oct., 1968. 34 Panorama

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