Slide-rule warfare

Media

Part of Philippine Armed Forces Journal

Title: Slide-rule warfare
Creator: Hall, W. C.
Language: English
Source: Philippine Armed Forces Journal Volume IX (No. 6) August 1956
Rights
Fulltext: cynic has described a ond, we indicate a definitely onfastudy as a devious vorable situation. from an unwarranted i to a foregone conclusion Suppose, however, that we trunThe staff study is apt to be accom- cate, or cut off, the bottom of our panied by charts, since the statisti- chart at 1,000, as in the bottom graph cians, like Jane Russell and Marilyn Now the curve looks different. Now Monroe, have discovered that curves if we explain that January is alway!< I. influence people. a bad month because of weather, and indicate an improvement over the Both the commander and the staff third quarter of the previous fiscal officer must have an understanding year, we have an optimistic report. of statistics and charts in order to arrive at the correct solution based co:::n~e/ec~~:in!~st ::c~d:.r~a~~~ on a proper analysis of the data not only on the curves but on an unprescribe•l. biased evaluation of the available Ho"' is Recruiting? data. Recruiting may be good but Let us suppose that the reeru;ting all considerations should lead you to record in a purely hypothetical area that conclusion. is as follows: second quarter (fiscal year) average, 1,040; January 1,030; What Will Sleel Do? February 1,060: March 1,075. Is this Financial pages dote on charts a good or bad record? showing steel production and so Jet's The top graph on page 50 indi- do the same. Ba_sed on the record, cates that it is bad. It appears to what are our est1mates for the fube practically at a standstill. And lure? The chart at the top on if we add some information, such as page 51 indicates clearly that the fact that we spent more money steel production was lower in 1954 in the third quarte1· than in the sec- than at any time since 1949. It also the built-in bias in curves and other seductive come-ons ~ ~ :fB ~~~rt :t:Ju ~~ - shows wide annual fluctuations. individual months. The a\·erage Based on this curve alone, would you would be better shown as a bar three estimate 1955 production above 95 times as wide as the month bars. million tons? (The individual figures for October, On the other hand, the chart under November and December would be it shows that there has been a steady still better.) increase during the last half of 1954. . . . U this keeps up, 1955 might be a Th~ u~ of logarJth_mJc or semirecord year exceeding 1953's 111 mil- logarJthm!c scales Will flatten a lion tons curve 100 or more times. The nu. merals 1, 2, 3 become 1, 10, 100 if Which chart gives the better indi- the scales are transformed to log cation? Do we accept the long- scales. range or the sho1 t-range trend? Ac- . . . tually, in 1955, steel production rode ~ro!echons mto t he Future . along with the boom to a record 115 Th1s IS the most dangerous kmd million tons. of chart or graph. It is po~sible and frequently necessary to estimate Other Tricks with Graphs requirements or production, but all In the use of bar charts, we some- available factors must be considered. times find bars of different thick- The tendency of the chart is to overneeses. If the data are represented simplify acts to inhibit full weighing by the length of the bar alone, then of all elements. The cham on steel obviously the heavier bars give an production show this. They show exaggerated appearance. If, on the nothing but trends according to past other hand, the data are represented production scheduled to go into opeby the area of the bars, the tenden- ration during 1955, backlogs of orcy is to minimize differences. ders going into 1955, and all the A change in scale may be employed. facts we knew about domestic and To illustrate, in the first chart on re- world trade, finance, and other facets cruiting a quarter is compared with of business know at the time. ,\, ... r.;n •. ,..., ... ~ !:: '"" .. OJ!~ .,. f "' ,,, "" :!.11-l, i .... ""' '1, .. ~ """ "' ~~. ... I '"'' ... ,,, ' ... • • ...... ----~ ... -.. - --.:;-, tical weapon-the intege:-. While I was a G4, a representative o! the local comptroller's office asked me to concur in the reductions in strength indicated in the table below, to meet an overall four per cent cut . ·~~illlltJ Ofrice G1 AG G2 G3 Use of Tables ~4 Statistics in tabular form are not, O~r :~ni~:~:~s~~n~r:~eg~:P~:.e .;:ear~gie;,ait~ Q.M addition, less tendency to oversimpli- S1gnal fy. But even in this field data must Trans be examined with caution. One common trick is the use of Officers 11 51 30 36 16 19 15 13 10 13 225 Reduction in Officer 4% Cut Strength 0.44 0 2.08 1.20 1.44 0.64 0.76 0.60 0.52 0.40 0.52 different average figures. The It appeared to me that G3, for ex"mean" of 1, 2, 3, 4 and 10 is ob- ample, with 36 oCficers, could afford tained by adding the numbers and to lose two officers with less difdividing by their number: 20/ 5 _ 4. ficulty than any of the smaller secThe "median," on the other hand, is tions could lose one. that number in the middle of the list When I was unable to make head1 arranged in order of magnitude- way with this argument, I proposed ; ,/ ::a~e::~;i.ned8~;o~i~~~ et~tere::r:l~~ ~~:\h~4te:~ni::l ::;;i~::t~:!u;e~~~: iltl ments only: 11/2 _ 5"h. sections together, take the required The average temperature of two cut and apply it where it would hurt cities might be 78 degrees F. in each t~e lea~t. I was able. to get away case, but while Honolulu has a range w1th this. argument, w1th the result . .. .. ,,. ' j ,. ' "" of from 65 to 88 F., the other (I that, takmg 4 per ce~t of the to.tal won't name it; I .may be station.ed :~ :~,44~:r c~mi:s:at~; :. reduction ~oe:e :t~~~o=Y~:~~h\~a~: a1;~r~~~ We've had fractional h~rses in the Which has the better climate? With- A.rmy, but ~ever fractional men. out considering range, an average Smce a fract1on, or rather, percenmay be· meaningless. tage, of 0.51 equals 1 when we o.re confined to integers, and 1.49 also Percentage reduction• equals 1, a lot of maneuvering is Recently I ran into a new statis- possible in this field. For example, PHILlPPINES ARMED PORCES JOURNAL 'in our table, three succpo;sh·e cuts of nical matters, he should insist on 4 per cent would reduce G3 and G4, common-sense answers. each by 3, whereas a single rcduc- Once when General Patton and tion of 12 per cent would hit G:J f"r members of his staff were inspecting 4 and G4 for only 2. Where you cut the construction of a bridge over the may depend on how you cut. Rhine River, the engineer in charge Is It Proper Propaganda? explained that he was saving several A good graph or chart is a desir· days' construction time by using the able instrument for illustrating facts. abutments of a blown bridge and set· People are more readily influenced ting vertical posts for his piers by charts than by words. through holes blown in the old bridge The commander and the responsi- floor which had dropped as a unit. ble staff officer must be assured of It was explained that this procedure the validity of his graphics. The was feasible since the bottom was data must be correct. They should finn. neither omit an clement nor smother "How in hell do you know that?" one factor with another. Tanks, for was Patton's question. "There must example, cost so much more than the be a lot of rubble down there." other items of equipment in an ar- A considerable amount of probing mored division, that the costs of indicated a hard bottom, but the Genequipment these divisions will ,-ary era! was right: one pier settied almost as the costs (if numbers are enough to cause extensive worry and equal) of the tanks. repair. If we combined the costs of main- One spring following a football taining light planes and helicopters, season in which Michigan_ had be~ten the cost would lie between the two Ohio State 7-6 for the B1g Ten t1tle, and likely be meaningless. the Ohio State coach. invited Will The interpretation of the data must Rogers to watch practice.. The e_nbe objective, and be made by some- ~ire ~u~d was enga~ed m practLc· one technically qualified to under- mg ktckmg extra pomts. stand the operation being charted. Said Will, "Don't you think . t~at The Skeptical Attitude And what else can the commander do? In addition to analyses by his staff, the commander should maintain a skeptical attitude and not hesitate to ask questions. Even on techyou should have someone practLctng touchdowns?" And speaking of specialists, it was a wise man who said, "Experts should always be on tap, never on top." (Reprinted from the ARJI/Y'magazinel Colonel William C. Hoi/, Corp• of frr9ineer., ho• b .. n o conttibllfM lo A.tMr 011d lh "' pred..:eu,• fot f'IIOIIr r•on. HI• ""A Medol lot Horotiu•" /Jrmuarr 19.5.51 ho• e.Jfobli•h•d it• place OJ a doulc of mi/itorr hu1110r. No other ortide from rhi• mof!Uille "'" beell more widelr reproduced-Or ci~lliorr ond ••,.,ic• publiarli0111, aometim•• wilh 011d lamerim•• withoul credil or permiuio11. Colonel Hall i1 o 19'31 ]JrOduote of rhe Militorr Acodemr who trarr•f•rr•d from the ll!folltrr lo lhe f1111i11 .. ., /11 1936 He "- iutl fi111Jhed hi1 rear or the Noti011ol War Coll• ge