Osmena vs Roxas

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Part of The Nation

Title: Osmena vs Roxas
Language: English
Year: 1945
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Fulltext: Osmeila v.s. Roxas e By Andres Z~ldivar The role of forecaster is always disagreeable and difficult. Furthermore, if the forecast is a'bout political contests it is an absolute certainty that the writer will find plenty of contradiction and abuse. The least that will be· said about him is that he is a self-conceited ignoramus. We are not deterred by this consideration, for we know that political writers must be prepared to stand a lot of criticism and insult. What we sitould like to avoid is being called part~al or biased, for we shall try· to answer th!l burning question in all honesty, basing our computations on facts about national and local politics exactly as we see them. The coming presidential fight in all probability will be a duel between Sergio Osmeiia and Manuel Acuna Roxas. What their chances will be four months from now, nobody can aoourately say. Roxas seems to have the edge at this moment. but no matter how big his • lead may be the advantage may be overcome by hi11 opponent whose expe:rience and sagacity must always be rec~ned with. The present forecast will only try to answer the question of who would be the probable choice were the elections to held tomorrow. The answer to if is: seO.initely ROXAS. The first factor that should be analyzed is who will be the Vicepresidential candidates and their vote pulling capacitifs. The President, . at this moment·, seems to be undecided between Carlos P. · Romulo and Eulogio Rodriguez Sr. The choice must apparently fall ·upon somebody from Luzon hecause the President is fr.om the Visayas. As far as v-ote pulling goes, Rodriguez would be perhaps considered more valuable, for he can dump into the presidential wagon an overwhelming majority of the Rizal votes. In the case of Romul<>, he can not claim political ascendency in any particular region or province. But should the .6 • A Preview of Their Chances To Be Elected tbe Next President of the Commonwealt~ our Past and Present P·residents. Who will be the next'? qualifications of the candidate for Vice-President become one of the election issues (Time Magazine, June 11, calls 08mefia the "aging" and "ailing" President), Romulo might become ·more· valuable as running-mate. On the' Roxas ticket, Quirino's name is the only one under cons~deration. He is from Luzon and he can command a sizeable portion of the Ilocano votes. Next to the Vice-presidency, the issue ·of "collaboration" wi"ll be an important factor, for it may decide the final • alignment of the most influential politicians in the different districts and provinces. The situation today stands pretty clearly. Since both presidential candidates hail from the Visayas, let us study their respective followings in ihe biggest Visayan provinces. Cebu, Osmeiia's bailiwick, will give him a majority. How big or small thi!s majority may turn out, will depend on how efficiently the opposing Cuenco faction may handle its own forces. If we give Osmeii.a a 70% scor~ in Cebu, the guess will be quite safe. Bohol will also go for Osmeiia because of his personal following and for the solid backing that he gets from Senator Garcia who' is now the undisputed leader of the province. The Osmefia lead in these two provinces will be overcome and surpassed by the Roxas votes in Iloilo, Capiz and Antique. The Senate President can be sure of a very big majority in the Island of Panay, pr~ided he can retain the support of Speaker Zuleta. Negros Occidental will appear in the Roxas column. The Alunan faction is solidly behind him (HernaezMontelibano - Lizares-Coscolluela) , while the Yu}o faction is divided, with MagalOna going for Osmeiia, and Gonzaga and Vargas for Roxos. Negros Oriental is doubtful. With the complete elimination of the Villanuevas from the political scene, there is no doubt that the votes of N egros Oriental .are controlled l>y the Romero-Teves l!tlmbination. Although both of them seem to be partial towards Roxas now, it is entirely possible that they may 'change sides or that their team may be split, because Romero is of Speakership caliber and he may have an eye to that position. Leyte, a fairly big. province, does not have a po-µtical boss, and must be stu_~ied _ by disThe NATION WHERE MOTORISTS GO! For their Spare Parts. Tires, Batteries & Accessories at Reac;onable Prices. Nl'CK'S AUTO SUPPLY "We Serve To Satisfy" WE BUY BY PICK-UP AUTO AND TRUCK TIRES 852 Tayuman, Corner Oroquietii. ORDER YOUR LUMBER AT OCCIDENTAL LUMBER LUMBER DEALE!:tS 1232 Azcarraga St. INSULAR TRADING co. 40.5 Juan Luna. Binondo Dealers in all kinds of House Furnitures, furniture for Office, store, bar, dnJg store, etc. at reasonable prices. GUILLERMO B. CHAN :\Ianager l LUIJ Z4M()l:?4. Founded in 1890 MANUFACTURERS OF: BADGES, PINS, MEDALS, NOTARIAL ~EALS, LABORE-RS' TAGS and PLATINGS 852 Tayuman, Corner Oroquieta -WHY _REMAIN ADAMANT? TODAY IS THE TIME! · BUILD· NOW FOR -TOMORROW. ~ Bu.ines• Locatio.n @ Mortgage Loan Administration @ Agricultural Lands :f¥>use for a Home @ Investment Call at 1111. and let . us know your proposition l\fANJLA HOME INV.ESTMENT Office: 1666 Felix Huertas, Sta. Cruz N. N. Aldaya, Manager Captain Blood Expert Shoemaker & Shoe Repaiter ®®@ A. MARTIZON, Prop. 147 BUSTILLOS • NEW MANILA LUMBER CO. LUMBER DEALERS 1136 Azcarraga Corner Sanchez jULY, 1945 tricts. Of its five Congressmen, only two are now available (Montejo and Canonoy). The rema,ining three (Tan, Oppus and Velosp) are in Muntinglupa, accused of collabo1·ation. Nothing definite is known of Montejo's and GanonOJ''s leanings, but it is safe to assume that the followers of Tan, Oppus and \-elo~o will back Roxas. The most that can be given tQ Osmeii.a in Leyh• is a fiHy-fifty chance. Samar is also an unknown factor, be~ause the man who will sway its votes in a decisive way is not yet committed to anybody. This man is ex-Secretary Avelino. , Mindalnao has fewer votes than either Luzon or Visayas. .As a .matter of fact, until now the votes of Mindanao have not , been decisive in any national' elections. But in a very close fight, which the coming one may turn out to be, the way Mindanao votes may be tlie deciding factor. Lack of fairly accurate data makes it extremely difficult to gauge the situation in Mirtdanao. However, we may assume that in tlie northern provinces, where· the Cebuario population· is predominant, Osmeiia will have an edge. In "Misamis Oriental, the V.-amenta-Artadi faction holds the balance. Vamenta may go for Roxas, but Artadi's stand is uncertain. In Misamis Occidental, Roxas wiU have a majority because the Ozamiz faction will probably support him. Stuart del Rosano may also side with him. ·In Zamboanga 'there Will be a close :fight, be~use votes will be split between the Lorenzo and Alano factions, the former going for Osmeii.a and the latter for Roxas.· CotabatQ may go to Osmefia, because Datu Piang seems to support him, while DaV1lo will be for Osmeii.a or Roxas ~ Sarenas may" choose to go. Lanao may also appear in the Osmeiia column, if Congressn1an Lluch decides to support him. If Luch goes for Roxas, Lanao will be divid~d, for. the Cabili votes will certainly gc;· to Osmeiia. Bukidnon Will give Roxas a clean majority, because of. the support of th; Fortich f~ tion, I It is Luzon, a,t any rat.e, that· will decide the contest. It is not only the biggest voting region, but the fact is that actual voting will be heaviest in Luzon because_ here normal conditions have been restored more quickly. And tbe general situation in Luzon does not look very encouraging for Osmeiia. The Ilocos region, comprising the big provinces of Abl!'a, Cagayan, lsabela, llocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union and Zambales, will give Roxas an overwhelming majority. Quirino will be able ~ swing many votes, Paredes, followers, because of the Osmeiia faction's attacks on "collaborators", will side with Roxas,- Arranz will command a maj~rity in Cagayan and lsabela, the factions of ·both O~ega and Osias in La Union will supp<>rt the Senate President, ahd even in Zambales, Anonas and Afable will support, "smart, swart, Brigadier General Roxas" (Time, June 11). · On th~ basis of th~ inclinations of the incumbent Congressmen, Pangasinan will alsa appear on the Roxas column. ]Jeltran; JJengzon, Perez and Ramos are for Roxas, while only Primicias sides with the present occupant of Malacaiian. Tarlac may go for Osmeiia,. ifCojuangco supports him. At any rate the Aquino faction will be solidly behind. Roxas. In Nueva Ecija, the· deciding voice will still be that of Buencamino. He has kept silent until now, but indications are tha't he ·may join the Rpxas ranks. Pampanga is doubtful. If there was a socialist candidate, he would get the majority here, but in the absence of one the P~mpanga votes may be finally counted in favor of the more liberal can"didate. Bulacan will go for Roxas. The strong influence of the Rustia-De Leon family (Mrs. Roxas is De· Leon) plus the following of Villarama is more than a match for old and sickly Senator Buendia. Tayabas is doubtful. Although the Provincial Board has recently committed itself in favor of Osmeiia, Gov. Enriquez and his Board members are not the real fJJlitica\ power in the provinc·C? of the late President Quezon. If Mrs. Quezon should' decide to choose sides, her support will be the decisive factor in Tayabas. Any candidate who carries Manila will have a very small majority. Laguna will also divide its votes, the same as Cavite (Montano for Osmeiia, exAsseniblyma~ Roxas for the Senate President). Batangas will appear fo/ Ro:ns, who will get the votes of the followers o( "collabprators" Recto, Laurel and Alas.. The Bicol regions will be evenly divided, on the basis of -the preferences of their incumbent Congressmen. Rizal is the only wovince ·in Luzon' that will give an overwhelming majority to Osmeiia, because Senator Rodriguez is indisputably the leader in t~is province. On the strength of the foregoing analysis, the inescapable conclusion is that Roxas will run away with the next presidential elections. But we must repeat that ttieSe- calculations a~e 'based on conditions as they are today. _ The whole situtation may be radically changed in four months, and for all we know the finall results of· the coming November elections may be entirely different from the eomplimerits of DRUGS & CHEMICALS IN GREAT DEMAND / Jn th: t:i•:k of re\rnhilitatir1g th<: Philippine,, ,,.;pm·e will 11luy a major role. D1·11g;; ancl ,.h._.miea I:, fo1· the 8if•k ~1 ncl the woun<l~\d : l:{horatory 1?q11ipment. for the me~ of_. ~'eiem·e; Hcientilie apparnlu~ fo:· e\·erv ),ind of new -industry-all thes~ nr<· !1eeded in the fight to hi ing fw k the Philippi1;ps tn her fed. King', D1 ugs and Clw1ni1·>ih< f aboratcn· l·:qnipment will he p. far1or i11 thi" fight. The propr.ietnr, Yn King (Yn Pue 'fek). is deh·rniirl('c\ thnt in these c1·ue;a1 time8, tP.e produrt~ of his laborator,· plant wm1ld be plaeed al the disposal of >;t·ieH! ific men wherp t.)~•:!.'• weinkl be uf the most help. Otht·P is locateJ at 720 Bambang, whil'h ;, today fast becoming· a \Tecc1 lo,- · ".\Ten. of Rrienc·e.---< Advt.) Life of Rizal To B~ Filmed San Feldman, Hollywood producer, has been granted permit by Dr. Trinidad Rizal, sister of the Philippine National Hero, to makf' a motion picture based on the, life of the Malayan p~triot. The· authorization has, been · 1·ecently wired to· the United States thru the Department of the I.riterior. Gonzales Elected To Presidernc'IJ Bienvenido Gonzales, President. of the U. P. at the s\,art of the war, subsequently "graduated" from· Fort S&:etiago, .was elected to the Presidency of the State University in the first· meeting held by th.e Boarl C1f Regents. Gonzales took his oath of office before President Osmefia shortly after his election. one we have ventured to forecast. I • e 1• I I I Hon .. Corne.Ho T. Villareal. Congressman for Capiz, 2nd District 8 The NATION